Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.428513 2.562961 2.707886 2.877056 3.070910 3.288417 3.554378
2025-03-30 2.200831 2.375278 2.573227 2.818604 3.120990 3.491093 3.995847
2025-04-06 2.046569 2.237979 2.461975 2.750367 3.123496 3.609720 4.332906
2025-04-13 1.941513 2.144000 2.386558 2.708274 3.141439 3.737380 4.698980
2025-04-20 1.892108 2.110573 2.378719 2.745909 3.262832 4.021168 5.380749
2025-04-27 1.867618 2.104254 2.401940 2.823403 3.446305 4.431119 6.457368
2025-05-04 1.817644 2.061428 2.373143 2.824596 3.515195 4.670289 7.341361
2025-05-11 1.774375 2.024106 2.348120 2.827231 3.584354 4.923680 8.452499
2025-05-18 1.711404 1.957697 2.279495 2.760165 3.532151 4.937998 8.928670
2025-05-25 1.673088 1.921893 2.250445 2.748881 3.569951 5.137257 10.220538
2025-06-01 1.636072 1.886035 2.219111 2.731222 3.593895 5.313470 11.726193
2025-06-08 1.599328 1.848970 2.184075 2.705019 3.599202 5.450135 13.383770
2025-06-15 1.583098 1.839944 2.189475 2.744304 3.731989 5.940608 19.548071
2025-06-22 1.539969 1.792682 2.138020 2.689716 3.683122 5.961739 22.362443
2025-06-29 1.497432 1.744916 2.083994 2.627888 3.614418 5.915004 24.514725
2025-07-06 1.464202 1.708993 2.045818 2.589711 3.588258 5.983030 30.488296
2025-07-13 1.453311 1.703524 2.051675 2.623843 3.709173 6.527215 144.181223
2025-07-20 1.452488 1.711883 2.078055 2.693960 3.915526 7.487741 NaN
2025-07-27 1.433865 1.694414 2.064812 2.695038 3.973862 7.970271 NaN
2025-08-03 1.416587 1.678281 2.052856 2.697418 4.035568 8.524814 NaN
2025-08-10 1.384792 1.640598 2.006737 2.636759 3.944618 8.331141 NaN
2025-08-17 1.366578 1.621968 1.989299 2.626536 3.971762 8.740177 NaN
2025-08-24 1.347839 1.602103 1.969279 2.610530 3.983351 9.091780 NaN